A stock market nightmare scenario: The S&P 500 could return

Stock market outlook: S&P 500 (SPX) could return 0% through early 2028 if interest rates rise—a nightmare scenario | Fortune © 2020 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our u003ca href=”https://fortune.com/terms-of-use/”>Terms of Useu003c/a> and u003ca href=”https://fortune.com/privacy-policy/”>Privacy Policyu003c/a> | u003ca href=”/california-privacy-policy/#notice”>CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Noticeu003c/a> | u003ca href=”https://fortune.com/right-to-opt-out/”>Do Not Sell My Personal Informationu003c/a> | u003ca href=”http://preferences-mgr.trustarc.com/?pid=fortunemedia01&aid=fortunemedia01_pub&type=fortunemedia”>Ad Choices u003c/a>u003cbr />nFORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.u003cbr />nQuotes delayed at least 15 minutes. Market data provided by u003ca href=”https://www.interactivedata.com”>Interactive Datau003c/a>. ETF and Mutual Fund data provided by u003ca href=”https://www.morningstar.com”>Morningstaru003c/a>, Inc. Dow Jones Terms & Conditions: u003ca href=”http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/html/tandc/indexestandcs.html”>http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/html/tandc/indexestandcs.htmlu003c/a>.u003cbr />nS&P Index data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. u003ca href=”https://www.intercontinentalexchange.com/terms-of-use”>Terms & Conditionsu003c/a>. Powered and implemented by u003ca href=”https://www.interactivedata.com/idms”>Interactive Data Managed Solutionsu003c/a>.u003c/p>n”},”children”:[]}]},{“name”:”social-links”,”config”:{“services”:{“facebook”:”Facebook”,”twitter”:”Twitter”,”linkedin”:”LinkedIn”,”instagram”:”Instagram”,”pinterest”:”Pinterest”},”displayIcons”:true,”themeName”:”footer”},”children”:[{“name”:”social-item”,”config”:{“displayIcon”:true,”type”:”facebook”,”url”:”https://www.facebook.com/FortuneMagazine/”,”themeName”:”footer”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”social-item”,”config”:{“displayIcon”:true,”type”:”twitter”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/FortuneMagazine”,”themeName”:”footer”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”social-item”,”config”:{“displayIcon”:true,”type”:”linkedin”,”url”:”https://www.linkedin.com/company/fortune-magazine”,”themeName”:”footer”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”social-item”,”config”:{“displayIcon”:true,”type”:”instagram”,”url”:”https://www.instagram.com/fortunemag/”,”themeName”:”footer”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”social-item”,”config”:{“displayIcon”:true,”type”:”pinterest”,”url”:”https://www.pinterest.com/fortunemagazine/”,”themeName”:”footer”},”children”:[]}]}]}],”providers”:{“/2021/02/16/sp-500-stock-market-predictions-outlook-spx-interest-rates/”:[{“name”:”google-tag-manager”,”config”:{“containerId”:”GTM-N68KRG3″,”dataLayer”:{“contentType”:”article”,”contentId”:”2954146″,”channel”:”finance”,”tags”:[“Investing”,”Personal Finance”,”Stock market”],”headline”:”A stock market nightmare scenario: The S&P 500 could return 0% through early 2028 if interest rates rise”,”authors”:[“Shawn Tully”],”franchiseName”:null,”premiumCategory”:”P-Reported”,”topics”:[],”sections”:[“Finance”]}},”children”:[]},{“name”:”franchise-config-provider”,”config”:{“franchise”:””,”franchiseTitle”:””,”franchiseListPath”:””,”color”:”#1baae1″},”children”:[]},{“name”:”advertising-provider”,”config”:{“ctype”:”article”,”cid”:”2954146″,”ch”:”finance”,”debug”:false,”search”:null,”tags”:[“Investing”,”Personal Finance”,”Stock market”],”topics”:[],”premiumCategory”:”P-Reported”,”defaultPath”:”fortune”,”slots”:[{“placementName”:”RightRailFlex_Articles”,”slotId”:”RightRailFlex_Articles0″,”lazyload”:true,”useDynamicChannel”:false,”targeting”:{“placement_name”:”RightRailFlex_Articles”,”index”:1}},{“placementName”:”RightRailFlex_Articles”,”slotId”:”RightRailFlex_Articles1″,”lazyload”:true,”useDynamicChannel”:false,”targeting”:{“placement_name”:”RightRailFlex_Articles”,”index”:2}},{“placementName”:”RightRailFlex_Articles”,”slotId”:”RightRailFlex_Articles2″,”lazyload”:true,”useDynamicChannel”:false,”targeting”:{“placement_name”:”RightRailFlex_Articles”,”index”:3}},{“placementName”:”Leaderboard”,”slotId”:”Leaderboard0″,”lazyload”:false,”useDynamicChannel”:false,”targeting”:{“placement_name”:”Leaderboard”,”index”:1}}]},”children”:[]}]},”page”:{“/2021/02/16/sp-500-stock-market-predictions-outlook-spx-interest-rates/”:[{“name”:”head”,”config”:{},”children”:[{“name”:”title”,”config”:{},”children”:[“Stock market outlook: S&P 500 (SPX) could return 0% through early 2028 if interest rates rise—a nightmare scenario | Fortune”]},{“name”:”meta”,”config”:{“name”:”google-site-verification”,”content”:”JRFNeudqAejM1a-TR7d05Ddr9_M8fHFT3Q4rCYsUkxc”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”script”,”config”:{“src”:”https://stats.wp.com/e-202107.js”,”defer”:true,”async”:true},”children”:[]},{“name”:”meta”,”config”:{“name”:”description”,”content”:”Interest rates are known to exert a gravitational pull on stocks. What happens if they start to rise?”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”meta”,”config”:{“name”:”keywords”,”content”:”stock market, s and p, dow jones, stocks today, stocks 2021, stocks outlook, stocks PE, stocks valuation, stocks close, stocks to buy now, should I buy stocks, stocks crash 2021, stock market correction, is a crash coming”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”meta”,”config”:{“property”:”og:url”,”content”:”https://fortune.com/2021/02/16/sp-500-stock-market-predictions-outlook-spx-interest-rates/”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”meta”,”config”:{“property”:”og:type”,”content”:”article”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”meta”,”config”:{“property”:”og:title”,”content”:”A stock market nightmare scenario: The S&P 500 could return 0% through early 2028 if interest rates rise”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”meta”,”config”:{“property”:”og:description”,”content”:”Interest rates are known to exert a gravitational pull on stocks. What happens if they start to rise?”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”meta”,”config”:{“property”:”og:site_name”,”content”:”Fortune”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”meta”,”config”:{“property”:”og:image”,”content”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1219183214.jpg?resize=1200,600″},”children”:[]},{“name”:”meta”,”config”:{“property”:”og:width”,”content”:”1024″},”children”:[]},{“name”:”meta”,”config”:{“property”:”og:height”,”content”:”661″},”children”:[]},{“name”:”meta”,”config”:{“name”:”twitter:card”,”content”:”summary_large_image”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”meta”,”config”:{“name”:”twitter:title”,”content”:”A stock market nightmare scenario: The S&P 500 could return 0% through early 2028 if interest rates rise”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”meta”,”config”:{“name”:”twitter:description”,”content”:”Interest rates are known to exert a gravitational pull on stocks. What happens if they start to rise?”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”meta”,”config”:{“name”:”twitter:image”,”content”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1219183214.jpg?resize=1200,600″},”children”:[]},{“name”:”meta”,”config”:{“name”:”twitter:url”,”content”:”https://fortune.com/2021/02/16/sp-500-stock-market-predictions-outlook-spx-interest-rates/”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”link”,”config”:{“rel”:”preload”,”href”:”/static/media/SaolText-Semibold.woff2″,”as”:”font”,”type”:”font/woff2″,”crossorigin”:”anonymous”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”link”,”config”:{“rel”:”preload”,”href”:”/static/media/SaolText-Bold.woff2″,”as”:”font”,”type”:”font/woff2″,”crossorigin”:”anonymous”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”link”,”config”:{“rel”:”preload”,”href”:”/static/media/GraphikCompact-Semibold-Web.woff2″,”as”:”font”,”type”:”font/woff2″,”crossorigin”:”anonymous”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”link”,”config”:{“rel”:”preload”,”href”:”/static/media/GraphikCondensed-Light-Web.woff2″,”as”:”font”,”type”:”font/woff2″,”crossorigin”:”anonymous”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”link”,”config”:{“rel”:”preload”,”href”:”/static/media/GraphikCondensed-Bold-Web.woff2″,”as”:”font”,”type”:”font/woff2″,”crossorigin”:”anonymous”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”link”,”config”:{“rel”:”preload”,”href”:”/static/media/MillerText-Roman.woff2″,”as”:”font”,”type”:”font/woff”,”crossorigin”:”anonymous”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”link”,”config”:{“rel”:”preload”,”href”:”/static/media/MillerText-Italic.woff2″,”as”:”font”,”type”:”font/woff”,”crossorigin”:”anonymous”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”link”,”config”:{“rel”:”preload”,”href”:”/static/media/MillerText-Bold.woff2″,”as”:”font”,”type”:”font/woff”,”crossorigin”:”anonymous”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”link”,”config”:{“rel”:”preload”,”href”:”/static/media/MillerText-BoldItalic.woff2″,”as”:”font”,”type”:”font/woff”,”crossorigin”:”anonymous”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”link”,”config”:{“rel”:”canonical”,”href”:”https://fortune.com/2021/02/16/sp-500-stock-market-predictions-outlook-spx-interest-rates/”},”children”:[]}]},{“name”:”parsely”,”config”:{“site”:”fortune.com”,”metadata”:{“@type”:”NewsArticle”,”@context”:”http://schema.org”,”publisher”:{“@type”:”Organization”,”name”:”Fortune”,”logo”:{“@type”:”ImageObject”,”url”:”https://fortune.com/static/media/logo.png”}},”headline”:”A stock market nightmare scenario: The S&P 500 could return 0% through early 2028 if interest rates rise”,”url”:”https://fortune.com/2021/02/16/sp-500-stock-market-predictions-outlook-spx-interest-rates/”,”mainEntityOfPage”:”https://fortune.com/2021/02/16/sp-500-stock-market-predictions-outlook-spx-interest-rates/”,”datePublished”:”2021-02-16T19:30:42-05:00″,”dateModified”:”2021-02-17T09:08:01-05:00″,”identifier”:2954146,”isAccessibleForFree”:false,”hasPart”:{“@type”:”WebPageElement”,”isAccessibleForFree”:”False”,”cssSelector”:”.paywall”},”thumbnailUrl”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1219183214.jpg”,”image”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1219183214.jpg”,”author”:[“Shawn Tully”],”keywords”:[“Investing”,”Personal Finance”,”Stock market”],”articleSection”:”Finance”,”description”:”Interest rates are known to exert a gravitational pull on stocks. What happens if they start to rise?”}},”children”:[]},{“name”:”fonts”,”config”:{},”children”:[]},{“name”:”site-stats”,”config”:{“data”:{“v”:”ext”,”j”:”1:9.4.1″,”blog”:164653900,”post”:2954146,”tz”:-5,”srv”:”content.fortune.com”}},”children”:[]},{“name”:”header”,”config”:{“themeName”:”large”,”homeLink”:”https://fortune.com/2021/02/16/sp-500-stock-market-predictions-outlook-spx-interest-rates/”},”children”:[{“name”:”header-search”,”config”:{},”children”:[{“name”:”search-nav”,”config”:{},”children”:[{“name”:”search-nav-menu”,”config”:{},”children”:[{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757811,”label”:”Automotives”,”url”:”/section/auto/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757814,”label”:”Careers”,”url”:”/section/careers/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757815,”label”:”Design”,”url”:”/section/design/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757816,”label”:”Energy”,”url”:”/section/energy/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]}]},{“name”:”search-nav-menu”,”config”:{},”children”:[{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757820,”label”:”Entertainment”,”url”:”/section/entertainment/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757822,”label”:”Finance”,”url”:”/section/finance/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757823,”label”:”Health”,”url”:”/section/health/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757824,”label”:”Humor”,”url”:”/section/humor/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757825,”label”:”International”,”url”:”/section/international/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]}]},{“name”:”search-nav-menu”,”config”:{},”children”:[{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757830,”label”:”Leadership”,”url”:”/section/leadership/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757831,”label”:”Photography”,”url”:”/section/photography/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757832,”label”:”Luxury”,”url”:”/section/luxury/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757833,”label”:”Newsletters”,”url”:”/section/newsletters/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]}]},{“name”:”search-nav-menu”,”config”:{},”children”:[{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757839,”label”:”Retail”,”url”:”/section/retail/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757841,”label”:”Real Estate”,”url”:”/section/real-estate/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757843,”label”:”Sports”,”url”:”/section/sports/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757846,”label”:”Technology”,”url”:”/section/tech/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]}]},{“name”:”search-nav-menu”,”config”:{},”children”:[{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757849,”label”:”All Rankings”,”url”:”/rankings/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757851,”label”:”Fortune 500″,”url”:”/fortune500/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757853,”label”:”Global 500″,”url”:”/global500/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757855,”label”:”40 Under 40″,”url”:”/40-under-40/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757856,”label”:”Most Powerful Women”,”url”:”/most-powerful-women/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]}]},{“name”:”search-nav-menu”,”config”:{},”children”:[{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757860,”label”:”About Us”,”url”:”/about-us/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757861,”label”:”Advertising”,”url”:”https://fortunemediakit.com/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]}]}]}]},{“name”:”header-menu”,”config”:{“socialHeading”:”Stay Connected”},”children”:[{“name”:”menu”,”config”:{“location”:””,”title”:””,”titleLink”:””,”displayTitle”:false,”menuItemClass”:””,”themeName”:””},”children”:[{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2659668,”label”:”Rankings”,”url”:”/rankings/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757866,”label”:”Magazine”,”url”:”/magazine/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757869,”label”:”Newsletters”,”url”:”https://mynewsletters.fortune.com/subscribe?source=FO_CMS_Nav”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2789243,”label”:”Podcasts”,”url”:”/podcasts/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2821372,”label”:”COVID-19″,”url”:”https://fortune.com/tag/coronavirus/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757870,”label”:”Video On Demand”,”url”:”/videos/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757871,”label”:”Fortune Live Media”,”url”:”https://fortune.com/conferences/”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2939507,”label”:”Fortune Connect”,”url”:”https://fortune.com/connect”,”themeName”:””},”children”:[]}]},{“name”:”social-links”,”config”:{“services”:{“facebook”:”Facebook”,”twitter”:”Twitter”,”linkedin”:”LinkedIn”,”instagram”:”Instagram”,”pinterest”:”Pinterest”},”displayIcons”:true,”themeName”:”menu-social”},”children”:[{“name”:”social-item”,”config”:{“displayIcon”:true,”type”:”facebook”,”url”:”https://www.facebook.com/FortuneMagazine/”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”social-item”,”config”:{“displayIcon”:true,”type”:”twitter”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/FortuneMagazine”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”social-item”,”config”:{“displayIcon”:true,”type”:”linkedin”,”url”:”https://www.linkedin.com/company/fortune-magazine”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”social-item”,”config”:{“displayIcon”:true,”type”:”instagram”,”url”:”https://www.instagram.com/fortunemag/”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”social-item”,”config”:{“displayIcon”:true,”type”:”pinterest”,”url”:”https://www.pinterest.com/fortunemagazine/”},”children”:[]}]}]},{“name”:”header-popular-posts”,”config”:{“heading”:”Most Popular Posts”},”children”:[{“name”:”content-list-item”,”config”:{“title”:”Elon Musk may be betting on Bitcoin—but here’s what 50 other CFOs really think about it”,”permalink”:”https://fortune.com/2021/02/17/bitcoin-elon-musk-tesla-tsla-btc-investment-cfos-experts/”,”hasVideo”:false,”themeName”:”header-popular-posts”,”isNativoTout”:false,”eyebrowSectionLabel”:”Finance”,”eyebrowSectionLink”:”https://fortune.com/section/finance/”,”eyebrowTagLabel”:”Bitcoin”,”eyebrowTagLink”:”https://fortune.com/tag/bitcoin/”,”publishDateIso8601″:”2021-02-17T21:30:36-05:00″,”id”:2954957,”excerpt”:””Finance leaders who are tasked with ensuring financial stability are not prone to making speculative leaps into unknown territory,” says Alexander Bant, Gartner Finance’s chief of research.”,”type”:”post”},”children”:[{“name”:”byline”,”config”:{“link”:”https://fortune.com/author/shawn-tully/”,”name”:”Shawn Tully”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”image”,”config”:{“aspectRatio”:0.6666666666666666,”attachmentId”:2955131,”alt”:””,”caption”:”Elon Musk placed a big bet on Bitcoin—but what do CFOs think about the currency?”,”crops”:[],”height”:1920,”imageSize”:”header-popular-posts”,”lazyload”:true,”lqipSrc”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Elon-Musk-with-Bitcoin_web.jpg?quality=60&resize=60,40″,”postId”:2954957,”retina”:false,”showCaption”:false,”sources”:[{“default”:true,”transforms”:{“resize”:[130,86]},”descriptor”:100}],”sourceTags”:[],”src”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Elon-Musk-with-Bitcoin_web.jpg?resize=130,86″,”srcset”:””,”url”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Elon-Musk-with-Bitcoin_web.jpg”,”useBasicImg”:true,”usingDataFallback”:false,”width”:2880,”fallbackImageUrl”:”data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7″,”picture”:false,”sizes”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”byline”,”config”:{“link”:”https://fortune.com/author/shawn-tully/”,”name”:”Shawn Tully”},”children”:[]}]},{“name”:”content-list-item”,”config”:{“title”:”California and Maryland are sending out stimulus checks of their own”,”permalink”:”https://fortune.com/2021/02/18/california-stimulus-checks-600-dollars-maryland-1400-when-will-i-get-my-check-money/”,”hasVideo”:false,”themeName”:”header-popular-posts”,”isNativoTout”:true,”eyebrowSectionLabel”:”Finance”,”eyebrowSectionLink”:”https://fortune.com/section/finance/”,”eyebrowTagLabel”:”Economic Stimulus”,”eyebrowTagLink”:”https://fortune.com/tag/economic-stimulus/”,”publishDateIso8601″:”2021-02-18T13:49:11-05:00″,”id”:2955496,”excerpt”:”They’re separate from the third round of federal stimulus being worked out in Congress.”,”type”:”post”},”children”:[{“name”:”byline”,”config”:{“link”:”https://fortune.com/author/chris-morris/”,”name”:”Chris Morris”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”image”,”config”:{“aspectRatio”:0.6666666666666666,”attachmentId”:2955550,”alt”:”California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks to members of the media during a press conference at Petco Park, February 8, 2021 in San Diego, California, during a visit to the Petco Park Vaccination Supersite.”,”caption”:””,”crops”:[],”height”:4480,”imageSize”:”header-popular-posts”,”lazyload”:true,”lqipSrc”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1231051236-1.jpg?quality=60&resize=60,40″,”postId”:2955496,”retina”:false,”showCaption”:false,”sources”:[{“default”:true,”transforms”:{“resize”:[130,86]},”descriptor”:100}],”sourceTags”:[],”src”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1231051236-1.jpg?resize=130,86″,”srcset”:””,”url”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1231051236-1.jpg”,”useBasicImg”:true,”usingDataFallback”:false,”width”:6720,”fallbackImageUrl”:”data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7″,”picture”:false,”sizes”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”byline”,”config”:{“link”:”https://fortune.com/author/chris-morris/”,”name”:”Chris Morris”},”children”:[]}]},{“name”:”content-list-item”,”config”:{“title”:”Bitcoin hits a new all-time high as investors surge back into stocks”,”permalink”:”https://fortune.com/2021/02/19/bitcoin-all-time-high-investors-syp-slump/”,”hasVideo”:false,”themeName”:”header-popular-posts”,”isNativoTout”:false,”eyebrowSectionLabel”:”Newsletters”,”eyebrowSectionLink”:”https://fortune.com/section/newsletters/”,”eyebrowTagLabel”:”Bull Sheet”,”eyebrowTagLink”:”https://fortune.com/tag/bull-sheet/”,”publishDateIso8601″:”2021-02-19T05:27:59-05:00″,”id”:2955452,”excerpt”:”U.S. futures point to a solid open on Friday as investors look to snap a three-day S&P 500 slump.”,”type”:”post”},”children”:[{“name”:”byline”,”config”:{“link”:”https://fortune.com/author/bernhard-warner/”,”name”:”Bernhard Warner”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”image”,”config”:{“aspectRatio”:0.6666666666666666,”attachmentId”:2950454,”alt”:””,”caption”:”Bitcoin hit a fresh all-time high on Friday morning.”,”crops”:[],”height”:1920,”imageSize”:”header-popular-posts”,”lazyload”:true,”lqipSrc”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Bitcoin_web13.jpg?quality=60&resize=60,40″,”postId”:2955452,”retina”:false,”showCaption”:false,”sources”:[{“default”:true,”transforms”:{“resize”:[130,86]},”descriptor”:100}],”sourceTags”:[],”src”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Bitcoin_web13.jpg?resize=130,86″,”srcset”:””,”url”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Bitcoin_web13.jpg”,”useBasicImg”:true,”usingDataFallback”:false,”width”:2880,”fallbackImageUrl”:”data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7″,”picture”:false,”sizes”:””},”children”:[]},{“name”:”byline”,”config”:{“link”:”https://fortune.com/author/bernhard-warner/”,”name”:”Bernhard Warner”},”children”:[]}]}]},{“name”:”html”,”config”:{“content”:”A stock market nightmare scenario: The S&P 500 could return 0% through early 2028 if interest rates rise”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”social-sharing”,”config”:{“services”:{“facebook”:true,”twitter”:true,”linkedin”:true,”email”:true},”displayIcons”:true,”themeName”:”header”},”children”:[{“name”:”social-item”,”config”:{“displayIcon”:true,”type”:”facebook”,”url”:”https://www.facebook.com/sharer.php/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ffortune.com%2F2021%2F02%2F16%2Fsp-500-stock-market-predictions-outlook-spx-interest-rates%2F”,”themeName”:”header”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”social-item”,”config”:{“displayIcon”:true,”type”:”twitter”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=A%20stock%20market%20nightmare%20scenario%3A%20The%20S%26P%20500%20could%20return%200%25%20through%20early%202028%20if%20interest%20rates%20rise&url=https%3A%2F%2Ffortune.com%2F2021%2F02%2F16%2Fsp-500-stock-market-predictions-outlook-spx-interest-rates%2F”,”themeName”:”header”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”social-item”,”config”:{“displayIcon”:true,”type”:”linkedin”,”url”:”https://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffortune.com%2F2021%2F02%2F16%2Fsp-500-stock-market-predictions-outlook-spx-interest-rates%2F&title=A%20stock%20market%20nightmare%20scenario%3A%20The%20S%26P%20500%20could%20return%200%25%20through%20early%202028%20if%20interest%20rates%20rise&summary=Interest%20rates%20are%20known%20to%20exert%20a%20gravitational%20pull%20on%20stocks.%20What%20happens%20if%20they%20start%20to%20rise%3F”,”themeName”:”header”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”social-item”,”config”:{“displayIcon”:true,”type”:”email”,”url”:”mailto:?subject=A%20stock%20market%20nightmare%20scenario%3A%20The%20S%26P%20500%20could%20return%200%25%20through%20early%202028%20if%20interest%20rates%20rise&body=https%3A%2F%2Ffortune.com%2F2021%2F02%2F16%2Fsp-500-stock-market-predictions-outlook-spx-interest-rates%2F”,”themeName”:”header”},”children”:[]}]},{“name”:”advertising-slot”,”config”:{“align”:”center”,”lazyload”:false,”useDynamicChannel”:false,”placementName”:”Leaderboard”,”slotId”:”Leaderboard0″,”targeting”:{“placement_name”:”Leaderboard”,”index”:1}},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu”,”config”:{“location”:””,”title”:””,”titleLink”:””,”displayTitle”:false,”menuItemClass”:””,”themeName”:”header”},”children”:[{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2659660,”label”:”Rankings”,”url”:””,”themeName”:”header”},”children”:[{“name”:”menu”,”config”:{“location”:””,”title”:”Rankings”,”titleLink”:””,”displayTitle”:false,”menuItemClass”:””,”themeName”:””,”type”:”submenu”},”children”:[{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757862,”label”:”See All Rankings”,”url”:”/rankings/”,”themeName”:”header”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757863,”label”:”Fortune 500″,”url”:”/fortune500/”,”themeName”:”header”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757864,”label”:”Global 500″,”url”:”/global500/”,”themeName”:”header”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757865,”label”:”40 Under 40″,”url”:”/40-under-40/”,”themeName”:”header”},”children”:[]}]}]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2757840,”label”:”Magazine”,”url”:”/magazine/”,”themeName”:”header”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2662045,”label”:”Newsletters”,”url”:”https://mynewsletters.fortune.com/subscribe?source=FO_CMS_Nav”,”themeName”:”header”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2783994,”label”:”Podcasts”,”url”:”https://fortune.com/podcasts/”,”themeName”:”header”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2808976,”label”:”COVID-19″,”url”:”https://fortune.com/tag/coronavirus/”,”themeName”:”header”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2939509,”label”:”More”,”url”:””,”themeName”:”header”},”children”:[{“name”:”menu”,”config”:{“location”:””,”title”:”More”,”titleLink”:””,”displayTitle”:false,”menuItemClass”:””,”themeName”:””,”type”:”submenu”},”children”:[{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2808973,”label”:”Video On Demand”,”url”:”https://fortune.com/videos/”,”themeName”:”header”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2662044,”label”:”Fortune Live Media”,”url”:”https://fortune.com/conferences/”,”themeName”:”header”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”menu-item”,”config”:{“id”:2939511,”label”:”Fortune Connect”,”url”:”https://fortune.com/connect”,”themeName”:”header”},”children”:[]}]}]}]}]},{“name”:”body”,”config”:{“bodyClasses”:[“article”]},”children”:[{“name”:”article-wrapper”,”config”:{“themeName”:”article”},”children”:[{“name”:”article-header”,”config”:{“publishDate”:”February 16, 2021″,”title”:”A stock market nightmare scenario: The S&P 500 could return 0% through early 2028 if interest rates rise”,”eyebrowSectionLabel”:”Finance”,”eyebrowSectionLink”:”https://fortune.com/section/finance/”,”eyebrowTagLabel”:”Stock market”,”eyebrowTagLink”:”https://fortune.com/tag/stock-market/”,”publishDateIso8601″:”2021-02-16T19:30:42-05:00″,”themeName”:”alignLeft”},”children”:[{“name”:”byline”,”config”:{“link”:”https://fortune.com/author/shawn-tully/”,”name”:”Shawn Tully”,”themeName”:”article”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”social-sharing”,”config”:{“services”:{“facebook”:true,”twitter”:true,”linkedin”:true,”email”:true},”displayIcons”:true,”themeName”:”article”},”children”:[{“name”:”social-item”,”config”:{“displayIcon”:true,”type”:”facebook”,”url”:”https://www.facebook.com/sharer.php/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ffortune.com%2F2021%2F02%2F16%2Fsp-500-stock-market-predictions-outlook-spx-interest-rates%2F”,”themeName”:”article”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”social-item”,”config”:{“displayIcon”:true,”type”:”twitter”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=A%20stock%20market%20nightmare%20scenario%3A%20The%20S%26P%20500%20could%20return%200%25%20through%20early%202028%20if%20interest%20rates%20rise&url=https%3A%2F%2Ffortune.com%2F2021%2F02%2F16%2Fsp-500-stock-market-predictions-outlook-spx-interest-rates%2F”,”themeName”:”article”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”social-item”,”config”:{“displayIcon”:true,”type”:”linkedin”,”url”:”https://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffortune.com%2F2021%2F02%2F16%2Fsp-500-stock-market-predictions-outlook-spx-interest-rates%2F&title=A%20stock%20market%20nightmare%20scenario%3A%20The%20S%26P%20500%20could%20return%200%25%20through%20early%202028%20if%20interest%20rates%20rise&summary=Interest%20rates%20are%20known%20to%20exert%20a%20gravitational%20pull%20on%20stocks.%20What%20happens%20if%20they%20start%20to%20rise%3F”,”themeName”:”article”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”social-item”,”config”:{“displayIcon”:true,”type”:”email”,”url”:”mailto:?subject=A%20stock%20market%20nightmare%20scenario%3A%20The%20S%26P%20500%20could%20return%200%25%20through%20early%202028%20if%20interest%20rates%20rise&body=https%3A%2F%2Ffortune.com%2F2021%2F02%2F16%2Fsp-500-stock-market-predictions-outlook-spx-interest-rates%2F”,”themeName”:”article”},”children”:[]}]}]},{“name”:”sidebar”,”config”:{“themeName”:”right”},”children”:[{“name”:”advertising-slot”,”config”:{“align”:”center”,”lazyload”:true,”useDynamicChannel”:false,”placementName”:”RightRailFlex_Articles”,”slotId”:”RightRailFlex_Articles0″,”themeName”:”article”,”targeting”:{“placement_name”:”RightRailFlex_Articles”,”index”:1}},”children”:[]},{“name”:”article-popular”,”config”:{“heading”:”Most Popular Posts”},”children”:[{“name”:”content-list-item”,”config”:{“title”:”Elon Musk may be betting on Bitcoin—but here’s what 50 other CFOs really think about it”,”permalink”:”https://fortune.com/2021/02/17/bitcoin-elon-musk-tesla-tsla-btc-investment-cfos-experts/”,”hasVideo”:false,”themeName”:”article-sidebar”,”isNativoTout”:true,”eyebrowSectionLabel”:”Finance”,”eyebrowSectionLink”:”https://fortune.com/section/finance/”,”eyebrowTagLabel”:”Bitcoin”,”eyebrowTagLink”:”https://fortune.com/tag/bitcoin/”,”publishDateIso8601″:”2021-02-17T21:30:36-05:00″,”id”:2954957,”excerpt”:””Finance leaders who are tasked with ensuring financial stability are not prone to making speculative leaps into unknown territory,” says Alexander Bant, Gartner Finance’s chief of research.”,”type”:”post”},”children”:[{“name”:”byline”,”config”:{“link”:”https://fortune.com/author/shawn-tully/”,”name”:”Shawn Tully”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”image”,”config”:{“aspectRatio”:0.6666666666666666,”attachmentId”:2955131,”alt”:””,”caption”:”Elon Musk placed a big bet on Bitcoin—but what do CFOs think about the currency?”,”crops”:[],”height”:1920,”imageSize”:”article-sidebar”,”lazyload”:true,”lqipSrc”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Elon-Musk-with-Bitcoin_web.jpg?quality=60&resize=60,40″,”postId”:2954957,”retina”:true,”showCaption”:false,”sources”:[{“default”:true,”transforms”:{“resize”:[130,86]},”descriptor”:100}],”sourceTags”:[],”src”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Elon-Musk-with-Bitcoin_web.jpg”,”srcset”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Elon-Musk-with-Bitcoin_web.jpg?resize=260,172 200w,https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Elon-Musk-with-Bitcoin_web.jpg?resize=130,86 100w”,”url”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Elon-Musk-with-Bitcoin_web.jpg”,”useBasicImg”:false,”usingDataFallback”:false,”width”:2880,”fallbackImageUrl”:”data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7″,”picture”:false,”sizes”:”100px”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”byline”,”config”:{“link”:”https://fortune.com/author/shawn-tully/”,”name”:”Shawn Tully”},”children”:[]}]},{“name”:”content-list-item”,”config”:{“title”:”California and Maryland are sending out stimulus checks of their own”,”permalink”:”https://fortune.com/2021/02/18/california-stimulus-checks-600-dollars-maryland-1400-when-will-i-get-my-check-money/”,”hasVideo”:false,”themeName”:”article-sidebar”,”isNativoTout”:false,”eyebrowSectionLabel”:”Finance”,”eyebrowSectionLink”:”https://fortune.com/section/finance/”,”eyebrowTagLabel”:”Economic Stimulus”,”eyebrowTagLink”:”https://fortune.com/tag/economic-stimulus/”,”publishDateIso8601″:”2021-02-18T13:49:11-05:00″,”id”:2955496,”excerpt”:”They’re separate from the third round of federal stimulus being worked out in Congress.”,”type”:”post”},”children”:[{“name”:”byline”,”config”:{“link”:”https://fortune.com/author/chris-morris/”,”name”:”Chris Morris”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”image”,”config”:{“aspectRatio”:0.6666666666666666,”attachmentId”:2955550,”alt”:”California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks to members of the media during a press conference at Petco Park, February 8, 2021 in San Diego, California, during a visit to the Petco Park Vaccination Supersite.”,”caption”:””,”crops”:[],”height”:4480,”imageSize”:”article-sidebar”,”lazyload”:true,”lqipSrc”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1231051236-1.jpg?quality=60&resize=60,40″,”postId”:2955496,”retina”:true,”showCaption”:false,”sources”:[{“default”:true,”transforms”:{“resize”:[130,86]},”descriptor”:100}],”sourceTags”:[],”src”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1231051236-1.jpg”,”srcset”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1231051236-1.jpg?resize=260,172 200w,https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1231051236-1.jpg?resize=130,86 100w”,”url”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1231051236-1.jpg”,”useBasicImg”:false,”usingDataFallback”:false,”width”:6720,”fallbackImageUrl”:”data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7″,”picture”:false,”sizes”:”100px”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”byline”,”config”:{“link”:”https://fortune.com/author/chris-morris/”,”name”:”Chris Morris”},”children”:[]}]},{“name”:”content-list-item”,”config”:{“title”:”Bitcoin hits a new all-time high as investors surge back into stocks”,”permalink”:”https://fortune.com/2021/02/19/bitcoin-all-time-high-investors-syp-slump/”,”hasVideo”:false,”themeName”:”article-sidebar”,”isNativoTout”:false,”eyebrowSectionLabel”:”Newsletters”,”eyebrowSectionLink”:”https://fortune.com/section/newsletters/”,”eyebrowTagLabel”:”Bull Sheet”,”eyebrowTagLink”:”https://fortune.com/tag/bull-sheet/”,”publishDateIso8601″:”2021-02-19T05:27:59-05:00″,”id”:2955452,”excerpt”:”U.S. futures point to a solid open on Friday as investors look to snap a three-day S&P 500 slump.”,”type”:”post”},”children”:[{“name”:”byline”,”config”:{“link”:”https://fortune.com/author/bernhard-warner/”,”name”:”Bernhard Warner”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”image”,”config”:{“aspectRatio”:0.6666666666666666,”attachmentId”:2950454,”alt”:””,”caption”:”Bitcoin hit a fresh all-time high on Friday morning.”,”crops”:[],”height”:1920,”imageSize”:”article-sidebar”,”lazyload”:true,”lqipSrc”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Bitcoin_web13.jpg?quality=60&resize=60,40″,”postId”:2955452,”retina”:true,”showCaption”:false,”sources”:[{“default”:true,”transforms”:{“resize”:[130,86]},”descriptor”:100}],”sourceTags”:[],”src”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Bitcoin_web13.jpg”,”srcset”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Bitcoin_web13.jpg?resize=260,172 200w,https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Bitcoin_web13.jpg?resize=130,86 100w”,”url”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Bitcoin_web13.jpg”,”useBasicImg”:false,”usingDataFallback”:false,”width”:2880,”fallbackImageUrl”:”data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7″,”picture”:false,”sizes”:”100px”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”byline”,”config”:{“link”:”https://fortune.com/author/bernhard-warner/”,”name”:”Bernhard Warner”},”children”:[]}]},{“name”:”content-list-item”,”config”:{“title”:”How Yeti plans to make its next billion”,”permalink”:”https://fortune.com/2021/02/18/yeti-coolers-billion-dollar-brands-backpacks-duffle-bags/”,”hasVideo”:false,”themeName”:”article-sidebar”,”isNativoTout”:false,”eyebrowSectionLabel”:”Retail”,”eyebrowSectionLink”:”https://fortune.com/section/retail/”,”eyebrowTagLabel”:”E-commerce”,”eyebrowTagLink”:”https://fortune.com/tag/e-commerce/”,”publishDateIso8601″:”2021-02-18T09:40:54-05:00″,”id”:2955046,”excerpt”:”The brand has ambitions far beyond making coolers.”,”type”:”post”},”children”:[{“name”:”byline”,”config”:{“link”:”https://fortune.com/author/phil-wahba/”,”name”:”Phil Wahba”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”image”,”config”:{“aspectRatio”:0.6666666666666666,”attachmentId”:2955171,”alt”:”Coolers sit on display for sale at the Yeti Holdings Inc. flagship store in Austin, Texas, U.S., on Wednesday, Sept. 12, 2018. Sergio Flores/Bloomberg via Getty Images”,”caption”:””,”crops”:[],”height”:2666,”imageSize”:”article-sidebar”,”lazyload”:true,”lqipSrc”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1035935810.jpg?quality=60&resize=60,40″,”postId”:2955046,”retina”:true,”showCaption”:false,”sources”:[{“default”:true,”transforms”:{“resize”:[130,86]},”descriptor”:100}],”sourceTags”:[],”src”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1035935810.jpg”,”srcset”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1035935810.jpg?resize=260,172 200w,https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1035935810.jpg?resize=130,86 100w”,”url”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1035935810.jpg”,”useBasicImg”:false,”usingDataFallback”:false,”width”:4000,”fallbackImageUrl”:”data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7″,”picture”:false,”sizes”:”100px”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”byline”,”config”:{“link”:”https://fortune.com/author/phil-wahba/”,”name”:”Phil Wahba”},”children”:[]}]}]},{“name”:”article-editor-picks”,”config”:{“heading”:”Editors’ Picks”},”children”:[{“name”:”content-list-item”,”config”:{“title”:”States are ‘diverging from CDC guidance,’ resulting in an unequal vaccine rollout, experts say”,”permalink”:”https://fortune.com/2021/02/17/covid-vaccine-cdc-guidelines-us-states-unequal-rollout-coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer-biontech-moderna/”,”hasVideo”:false,”themeName”:”article-sidebar”,”isNativoTout”:true,”eyebrowSectionLabel”:”Health”,”eyebrowSectionLink”:”https://fortune.com/section/health/”,”eyebrowTagLabel”:”COVID-19 Vaccine”,”eyebrowTagLink”:”https://fortune.com/tag/covid-vaccine/”,”publishDateIso8601″:”2021-02-17T06:00:00-05:00″,”id”:2948535,”excerpt”:”A lack of a national strategy and overburdened health care workforce has led to wide gaps in the COVID vaccine eligibility verification process.”,”type”:”post”},”children”:[{“name”:”byline”,”config”:{“link”:”https://fortune.com/author/sayak-mukherjee/”,”name”:”Sy Mukherjee”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”image”,”config”:{“aspectRatio”:0.6666666666666666,”attachmentId”:2949476,”alt”:”COVID vaccine verification”,”caption”:””,”crops”:[],”height”:3120,”imageSize”:”article-sidebar”,”lazyload”:true,”lqipSrc”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/COVID-vaccine-verification.jpg?quality=60&resize=60,40″,”postId”:2948535,”retina”:true,”showCaption”:false,”sources”:[{“default”:true,”transforms”:{“resize”:[130,86]},”descriptor”:100}],”sourceTags”:[],”src”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/COVID-vaccine-verification.jpg”,”srcset”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/COVID-vaccine-verification.jpg?resize=260,172 200w,https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/COVID-vaccine-verification.jpg?resize=130,86 100w”,”url”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/COVID-vaccine-verification.jpg”,”useBasicImg”:false,”usingDataFallback”:false,”width”:4589,”fallbackImageUrl”:”data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7″,”picture”:false,”sizes”:”100px”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”byline”,”config”:{“link”:”https://fortune.com/author/sayak-mukherjee/”,”name”:”Sy Mukherjee”},”children”:[]}]},{“name”:”content-list-item”,”config”:{“title”:”From concrete to steel, how construction makes up the ‘last mile’ of decarbonization”,”permalink”:”https://fortune.com/2021/02/16/concrete-steel-construction-design-climate/”,”hasVideo”:false,”themeName”:”article-sidebar”,”isNativoTout”:false,”eyebrowSectionLabel”:”Environment”,”eyebrowSectionLink”:”https://fortune.com/section/environment/”,”eyebrowTagLabel”:”Climate Change”,”eyebrowTagLink”:”https://fortune.com/tag/climate-change/”,”publishDateIso8601″:”2021-02-16T05:18:25-05:00″,”id”:2953006,”excerpt”:”Buildings are responsible for 40% of the world’s emissions. Making them truly carbon neutral will require breakthroughs in carbon capture and storage—and really good design. “,”type”:”post”},”children”:[{“name”:”byline”,”config”:{“link”:”https://fortune.com/author/katherine-dunn/”,”name”:”Katherine Dunn”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”image”,”config”:{“aspectRatio”:0.6666666666666666,”attachmentId”:2953452,”alt”:”Climate Package 2021-Home Emissions”,”caption”:””,”crops”:[],”height”:1920,”imageSize”:”article-sidebar”,”lazyload”:true,”lqipSrc”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Climate-Package-2021-Home_Emissions2.jpg?quality=60&resize=60,40″,”postId”:2953006,”retina”:true,”showCaption”:false,”sources”:[{“default”:true,”transforms”:{“resize”:[130,86]},”descriptor”:100}],”sourceTags”:[],”src”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Climate-Package-2021-Home_Emissions2.jpg”,”srcset”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Climate-Package-2021-Home_Emissions2.jpg?resize=260,172 200w,https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Climate-Package-2021-Home_Emissions2.jpg?resize=130,86 100w”,”url”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Climate-Package-2021-Home_Emissions2.jpg”,”useBasicImg”:false,”usingDataFallback”:false,”width”:2880,”fallbackImageUrl”:”data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7″,”picture”:false,”sizes”:”100px”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”byline”,”config”:{“link”:”https://fortune.com/author/katherine-dunn/”,”name”:”Katherine Dunn”},”children”:[]}]},{“name”:”content-list-item”,”config”:{“title”:”With the Mustang Mach-E, Ford brings America’s consummate muscle car into the plug-in era—and sparks fly”,”permalink”:”https://fortune.com/2021/02/13/ford-mustang-mach-e-ev-tesla-electric-vehicles/”,”hasVideo”:false,”themeName”:”article-sidebar”,”isNativoTout”:false,”eyebrowSectionLabel”:”Auto”,”eyebrowSectionLink”:”https://fortune.com/section/auto/”,”eyebrowTagLabel”:”Ford Motor”,”eyebrowTagLink”:”https://fortune.com/tag/ford-motor/”,”publishDateIso8601″:”2021-02-13T08:30:00-05:00″,”id”:2953033,”excerpt”:”Ford has set an ambitious target of selling 30,000 Mach-E Mustangs this year, a bet that’s exciting shareholders but dividing fans of this American classic. Fortune took it for a spin to see what all the fuss is about.”,”type”:”post”},”children”:[{“name”:”byline”,”config”:{“link”:”https://fortune.com/author/eric-c-evarts/”,”name”:”Eric C. Evarts”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”image”,”config”:{“aspectRatio”:0.6666666666666666,”attachmentId”:2952475,”alt”:””,”caption”:”Ford has set an ambitious target of selling 30,000 Mach-E Mustangs this year, a bet that’s exciting shareholders but dividing fans of this American classic. Fortune gave it a test spin to see what all the fuss is about. (Original photo: Eric C. Evarts)n”,”crops”:[],”height”:1921,”imageSize”:”article-sidebar”,”lazyload”:true,”lqipSrc”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Mustang_4.jpg?quality=60&resize=60,40″,”postId”:2953033,”retina”:true,”showCaption”:false,”sources”:[{“default”:true,”transforms”:{“resize”:[130,86]},”descriptor”:100}],”sourceTags”:[],”src”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Mustang_4.jpg”,”srcset”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Mustang_4.jpg?resize=260,172 200w,https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Mustang_4.jpg?resize=130,86 100w”,”url”:”https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Mustang_4.jpg”,”useBasicImg”:false,”usingDataFallback”:false,”width”:2880,”fallbackImageUrl”:”data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7″,”picture”:false,”sizes”:”100px”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”byline”,”config”:{“link”:”https://fortune.com/author/eric-c-evarts/”,”name”:”Eric C. Evarts”},”children”:[]}]}]},{“name”:”advertising-slot”,”config”:{“align”:”center”,”lazyload”:true,”useDynamicChannel”:false,”placementName”:”RightRailFlex_Articles”,”slotId”:”RightRailFlex_Articles1″,”themeName”:”article”,”targeting”:{“placement_name”:”RightRailFlex_Articles”,”index”:2}},”children”:[]},{“name”:”dianomi”,”config”:{“type”:”sidebar”},”children”:[]},{“name”:”advertising-slot”,”config”:{“align”:”center”,”lazyload”:true,”useDynamicChannel”:false,”placementName”:”RightRailFlex_Articles”,”slotId”:”RightRailFlex_Articles2″,”themeName”:”article”,”targeting”:{“placement_name”:”RightRailFlex_Articles”,”index”:3}},”children”:[]}]},{“name”:”article-media”,”config”:{“publishDate”:””,”type”:”video”,”section”:”Finance”},”children”:[{“name”:”brightcove-video”,”config”:{“accountId”:”2111767321001″,”disableAds”:false,”disableAutoplay”:false,”disableContinuousPlay”:false,”disableViewplay”:false,”isLeadVideo”:false,”loop”:false,”playerId”:”HDNR3TkSj”,”stickyPlayerOff”:false,”silentlyAutoplay”:true,”videoId”:”6224573462001″,”section”:”Finance”},”children”:[]}]},{“name”:”article-body”,”config”:{“mediaType”:”video”,”premiumCategory”:”P-Reported”},”children”:[{“name”:”gutenberg-content”,”config”:{},”children”:[{“name”:”html”,”config”:{“content”:” u003cp>u003ci data-stringify-type=”italic”>Our mission to make business better is fueled by readers like you. To enjoy unlimited access to our journalism, u003c/i>u003ci data-stringify-type=”italic”>u003ca class=”c-link” href=”https://bit.ly/2zexcz1″ target=”_blank” rel=”noopener noreferrer” data-stringify-link=”https://bit.ly/2zexcz1″ data-sk=”tooltip_parent”>subscribe todayu003c/a>u003c/i>u003ci data-stringify-type=”italic”>.u003c/i>u003c/p> u003cp>The bulls are making a whopper of a claim: that stock prices are reasonable because rates will stay incredibly low forever. Discard that fantasy, and their rationale collapses. We’re in for a replay of what always happens when bond yields become super-slender. Rates will rise, and equities will languish so badly that on big caps, you’ll be lucky to pocket piddling returns in the years ahead.u003c/p> u003cp>Warren Buffett often talks about how interest rates exert a gravitational pull on stocks. What matters to investors isn’t the so much the total return they get from equities; it’s the u003cem>marginu003c/em> on what, say, big-cap stocks offer over the relative safety of holding Treasuries. The less the 10-year is yielding, the higher the price folks and money managers are willing to pay for an S&P 500 index fund, or a blue-chip portfolio that more or less tracks the index. u003c/p>u003cp>u003c!– piano selector –>u003c/p>u003cdiv class=”paywall”> u003cp>The bulls who pushed the S&P 500 to a record close of 3945 on Feb. 12 swear that today’s incredibly low rates justify u003ca href=”https://fortune.com/2021/02/08/stock-market-stocks-overvalued-robert-shiller-metrics-data/” data-type=”post” data-id=”2949896″>valuations that look overly stretchedu003c/a>, if not hovering in bubble territory. Just discount back future earnings incorporating these super-low yields, they argue. You’ll find that the dollars you’re paying for each dollar in profits, though it looks high, makes sense, and even leaves air space for the S&P to push higher.u003c/p> u003cp>The optimists’ manifesto contains a faulty assumption: That by far the u003ca href=”https://fortune.com/2020/09/16/fed-interest-rate-near-zero-unchanged-covid-coronavirus/” data-type=”post” data-id=”2886419″>lowest rates in at least 60 yearsu003c/a> are here to stay. The idea is that stocks can stay this expensive because they’ll remain so much better than bonds. But that’s only true if you posit that “real” yields, adjusted for inflation, remain in today’s negative territory pretty much forever. It’s never happened before and won’t happen going forward. Put simply, earnings should be discounted back not depending on today’s rates, but projected rates going forward. Wall Street would rather believe that a 10-year Treasury paying less than inflation is the new normal. It’s not.u003c/p> u003cp>Right now, the P/E multiple for the S&P 500, based on the past four quarters of EPS through Q4 of 2020, stands at 40. That’s deceivingly high, reflecting the severe drop in mid-2020 caused by the COVID crisis. The u003ca href=”https://fortune.com/2021/02/01/when-will-us-economy-recover-cbo-report-predictions-budget/” data-type=”post” data-id=”2947225″>Congressional Budget Office projectsu003c/a> that U.S. GDP will regain its pre-pandemic reading in mid-2021. So let’s predict that when national income returns to that norm, so do profits, which stood at $139.47 per share at the close of 2019.u003c/p> u003cp>Using that “normalized” number, the S&P is selling at a P/E of 28.3 (3945 divided by $139.47). Hence, the S&P earnings yield, the dollars you can expect to pocket in dividends and price appreciation, is 3.53%. Add 2% inflation, and you can expect to garner 5.53% a year, so long as the P/E holds constant at around 28. That return comes in two buckets: the dividend yield of 1.58%, and earnings growth, courtesy of plowed-back profits, of nearly 4%.u003c/p> u003cp>That number doesn’t sound great. But it’s better than it looks, because the yield on the 10-year Treasury is just 1.09%. We’ll do the calculations adjusted for inflation, since it’s the “real” numbers that set P/E multiples. Inflation is now running at 1.65%, meaning the long bond yield is a u003cem>negativeu003c/em> 0.56%. No wonder bonds appear so unattractive. They don’t even keep you whole with prices at the mall and supermarket. But what makes bonds look bad makes stocks look better. Stocks are beating bonds, adjusted for inflation, by 4%. That is, the 3.53% real expected return exceeds the long bond yield that’s 0.56% underwater by just over 4%. Based on history, that 4% is a pretty good margin. u003c/p> u003cp>But you only keep logging those 3.53% (real) yearly returns if bonds stay incredibly cheap and the P/E remains at a lofty 28. It’s hard if not impossible to justify today’s valuations unless you assume that today’s negative real rates are permanent. If that’s the case, then the discount rate applied to future profits will remain extraordinarily low, and today’s stock prices look just fine.u003c/p> u003cp>But rates won’t remain at today’s bargain levels. That’s what both history and the Congressional Budget Office’s most recent forecast tell us. It won’t happen for a while. But the CBO projects a long bond yield of around 2.1% in 2026, rising to roughly 3.0% in 2028, and into the mid-3s by 2031. u003c/p> u003cp>Let’s assume investors will want to keep that 4% edge over bonds seven years from now, in early 2028. The CBO predicts inflation will be running at 2.1%. Hence, the “real” yield will jump from minus 0.56% to plus 0.9%. Add that number to the 4% margin, and you get 4.9%. That 4.9% is what stocks can be expected to pay you in the future, adjusted for inflation. Hence, the earnings yield would need to go from today’s 3.53% to 4.9%. And the real earnings yield can only be 4.9% if the P/E drops to 20.4. Then you’d be getting $4.90 (plus inflation of, say, $2.00) for every $100 you invest in the S&P 500.u003c/p> u003cp>We’ll assume you don’t sell any stock over those seven years. During that period, you’d get an annual average of 1.8% from dividends. But the almost eight-point drop in multiple from 28.3 to 20.4 would leave you with a minuscule return. The value of your portfolio wouldu003cstrong> u003c/strong>be almost exactly where it is today. Your total return would be that 1.8% from dividends. Betting on the S&P means losing to inflation. The best time to buy stocks is when rates are extremely high and P/Es are in the dumps. u003c/p> u003cp>Today’s scenario is the exact opposite. So, as they say in the COVID era, follow the science. And forget the fantasy.u003c/p> u003ch3>u003cspan style=”font-weight: 400;”>More must-read u003c/span>u003ca href=”https://fortune.com/section/finance/”>u003cspan style=”font-weight: 400;”>finance coverageu003c/span>u003c/a>u003cspan style=”font-weight: 400;”> from u003c/span>u003ci>u003cspan style=”font-weight: 400;”>Fortuneu003c/span>u003c/i>u003cspan style=”font-weight: 400;”>:u003c/span>u003c/h3>nu003cul>nu003cli>Why Biden’s climate policies u003ca href=”https://fortune.com/2021/02/14/biden-climate-policies-stock-market-sp-500-spx-corporate-profits/”>could be good for the S&P 500u003c/a>u003c/li>nu003cli>With the Mustang Mach-E, Ford brings America’s consummate muscle car into the plug-in era—u003ca href=”https://fortune.com/2021/02/13/ford-mustang-mach-e-ev-tesla-electric-vehicles/”>and sparks flyu003c/a>u003c/li>nu003cli>u003ca href=”https://fortune.com/2021/02/11/taxes-2021-filing-2020-tax-when-can-i-file-due-date-deadline-brackets-deductions-irs-stimulus-check-unemployment-taxable-401k-refund-extension-faq/”>Tax season 2021u003c/a>: Deadlines, brackets, refunds, taxable income, and everything else you need to know about filing your 2020 taxesu003c/li>nu003cli>Reformed Bitcoin miner: u003ca href=”https://fortune.com/2021/02/13/elon-musk-tesla-bitcoin-bet-1-5-billion-alex-pickard/”>Elon Musk’s $1.5 billion bet is “crazy”u003c/a>u003c/li>nu003cli>TikTok to the moon? u003ca href=”https://fortune.com/2021/02/15/tiktok-gen-z-users-age-groups-survey/”>The app is outgrowing its Gen Z stereotypeu003c/a>u003c/li>nu003c/ul>nu003c/div>n”},”children”:[]}]}]},{“name”:”dianomi”,”config”:{“type”:”footer”},”children”:[]}]}]}]}},”componentData”:{},”error”:null,”loading”:false,”player”:{“currentTime”:0,”duration”:0,”loading”:false,”playing”:false,”seek”:0,”src”:””,”visible”:false,”volume”:0.5},”route”:{“status”:200,”redirectTo”:””,”redirectStatus”:0,”action”:”PUSH”,”pathname”:”/2021/02/16/sp-500-stock-market-predictions-outlook-spx-interest-rates/”,”search”:”?”,”hash”:””},”visible”:{“search”:false,”primaryNav”:false,”freestar”:false,”adminBar”:false},”contactForm”:{“submitting”:false,”submitted”:false,”failed”:false,”validation”:{},”redirect”:””},”user”:{“isLoggedIn”:false,”accessLevel”:null}}; ]]>

Related Post

Be the first to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.


*